San Diego Market Insight
The numbers. The nuance. Your next move. A concise weekly read on the forces shaping San Diego County real estate.
Week of August 3, 2026
The Collins Take
This year's market,
in perspective.
After the extraordinary run of the pandemic years, much of San Diego has recalibrated. Some sellers remain anchored to peak era pricing rather than what today's buyers are willing to pay, and automated estimates like Zillow's Zestimate can reinforce that gap. An algorithm cannot walk a property, weigh its condition and updates, account for its exact location, or read the concessions shaping a deal right now.
San Diego still operates within its own economic ecosystem. Limited supply, a diverse employment base, military presence, universities, tourism, and enduring lifestyle demand have historically helped the region recover faster than most. That resilience is not uniform. I am currently seeing more price sensitivity in Chula Vista, El Cajon, Lakeside, Ramona, and Escondido. Even there, many owners who bought five years ago likely hold real equity, though that has to be verified property by property.
Here is the glimmer of hope worth holding onto. National home prices grew 1.7% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, according to FHFA, a slower pace than the pandemic years, but still growth, not decline. Federal Reserve data placed total U.S. homeowner equity at approximately $34.9 trillion that same quarter. Every amortizing mortgage payment builds equity too, appreciation is only part of the story.
I generally recommend a five year holding horizon, provided the purchase fits a buyer's income, reserves, and life plans. Historically, national appreciation has averaged roughly 3.5% to 5% annually over long periods, though any single year can run well above or below that. I evaluate two, five, and ten year windows rather than letting one year define the strategy, the same discipline I would bring to any long term investment.
Before real estate, I spent over a decade as a financial advisor, and that shaped how I weigh risk, time horizon, and long term wealth building. It also shaped how I price listings. I will not chase an aspirational number to win one, an overpriced launch costs sellers time and leverage, and repeated reductions make buyers question a property before they ever see it. I will tell you what the evidence supports, not what is easiest to hear, because that is how you make a decision you can stand behind.
Market and economic context: FHFA U.S. House Price Index Report, Q1 2026, Federal Reserve Owners' Equity in Real Estate.
Live CRMLS Data
Three live views.
One clearer market.
These panels update directly from CRMLS market statistics. Use them together to understand price, supply, and pace, not simply one isolated number.
Financing Lens
Mortgage rates, at a glance.
On a $950,000 purchase with 760 credit and 20% down, today's 30-year fixed sits at 6.000% and the 5/5 ARM at 5.125%. Run your own numbers →
Always shop around for the best combination of rate, APR, points, lender fees, and loan terms. Local credit unions may offer highly competitive options. Illustrative only, not a Loan Estimate or an offer to lend. Confirm rates, taxes, insurance, HOA obligations, eligibility, and complete payment details with licensed professionals.
Loan Insight
Why I Chose a 5/5 ARM
This is the loan I personally have and often recommend that buyers consider alongside their fixed-rate options. Many homeowners sell or refinance within five years, although borrowers fortunate enough to hold a 2 to 3 percent mortgage may have a strong reason to keep it. My current rate is 2.375 percent. Under my loan terms, the rate can increase by no more than two percentage points at this adjustment, so I expect it to change to 4.375 percent at the end of this year. That change will increase my monthly payment by approximately $600. My experience is a real-world example, not a guarantee that the same loan will be appropriate for every buyer.
Featured Trusted Lender
San Diego County Credit Union
I bank with SDCCU and hold my own mortgage with them, which is why I include their rates in my research. Buyers should compare personalized Loan Estimates from multiple lenders or credit unions before making a decision.
Future refinance opportunities and rates are never guaranteed. For plain-language consumer guidance, visit the CFPB's Know Before You Owe resource.
